Ceasefire Violations: Why They Occur and How They Relate to Strategic Decision-Making Processes

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Almost all ceasefires experience violations, yet we know little about how such violations relate to the military and political aspirations of conflict parties. This article builds on ceasefire bargaining literature understand why occur they strategic decision-making processes. Building these theoretical insights, it proposes a typology four main types violations: serve strengthen advantage party, retaliatory seek ensure compliance, spoiling aim undermine efforts leaders, localized are delinked from A case study major violation in Bangsamoro peace process illustrates may use informal Bayesian reasoning empirically distinguish between different violations. Treating as part wider processes enables us better causal conditions under which identify interests actors carry out helps explain varied responses sharpens our understanding address them.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Studies Review

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1468-2486', '1521-9488']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viac046